SpaceX IPO: Investing Doubts Amidst Massive Valuation

Summary

SpaceX, lauded for its rapid innovation and 'ask forgiveness, not permission' approach to development, is now facing intense scrutiny over its valuation ahead of its potential IPO. While acknowledging the company's spectacular history and vision, investors express significant hesitation about buying in at current price points, questioning why they would pay six times what they could have just a short time ago. A key factor discussed is SpaceX's small float, which could force index funds to buy shares, potentially creating a floor for the stock, especially if early liquidation triggers are met. However, predicting the stock's performance over the next 6 to 12 months is deemed very difficult. A major investment pitfall highlighted is spending an 'unordinary amount of time' researching SpaceX, diverting attention from other promising opportunities. The conversation also touches on other major tech IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic, with valuations of $850 billion and $965 billion respectively. While past investors profited from early investment in SpaceX based on a thesis of future growth and retail investor interest, current sentiment is cautious. The immense capital SpaceX might raise, potentially around $75 billion, leads to speculation about where this money will go. The partnership with Intel for AI chip fabrication is highlighted as particularly interesting, with some even suggesting a potential acquisition. Other beneficiaries from SpaceX's AI infrastructure build-out could include Nvidia, ASMI, and potentially SMCI, though SMCI's past scandals are noted. Ultimately, the consensus leans towards significant uncertainty regarding SpaceX's immediate future stock performance, with some advising to sell half and focus on more predictable investments.