Why Military Success Has Not Reopened the Strait of Hormuz

Summary

The United States may have devastated Iran’s forces, yet it still cannot force open the Strait of Hormuz. Quincy Institute executive Trita Parsi argues that Iran controls which vessels pass through the strait, while a competing US blockade has sharply reduced traffic. Despite 13 days of bombing, Iranian naval and air losses, killed commanders, and severe inflation, Washington achieved none of its strategic objectives. Reopening the waterway militarily could require occupying southern Iran with 500,000 troops and a year of preparation, an option with no viable political support. Parsi says the war may have strengthened Iran’s theocracy by creating a rallying-around-the-flag effect after major protests left it vulnerable. Most Iranians may still want a different political system, but foreign attacks on infrastructure and threats against the country have weakened enthusiasm for externally imposed regime change. That unity could fade if prolonged hardship makes Iran’s leadership appear responsible for blocking peace. The strait remains essential because it carries oil, fertilizers, and chemicals that pipelines cannot fully replace. Its share of global oil has fallen from nearly 40% around 20 to 25 years ago to about 21 to 22%, but Asian countries remain highly exposed; Japan receives roughly 95 to 97% of its oil from the Middle East. Parsi expects the conflict to end through negotiation, though distrust, vague ceasefire terms, Israeli actions in Lebanon, and electoral politics could keep it active until the US midterms.