Why One Analyst Calls the Metals Selloff a Historic Window

Summary

Gold’s roughly 29% correction and silver’s decline of over 50% may represent one of the rarest buying windows in a precious-metals bull market. Market technician Jordan Roy-Byrne argues that comparable gold selloffs during secular advances—29% in 1973, 30% in 2008, and 45% in 1975 to 1976—were followed by major recoveries. He believes today differs sharply from the peaks of 1980 and 2011 because capital has not yet rotated heavily from stocks into metals. Gold’s implied share of ETF assets is below 2%, versus over 8% near a previous secular peak, while silver’s is about 0.25% or 0.3%, compared with nearly 2% in 2011. Fundamentals may also be turning supportive: a steepening spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields can reflect inflation expectations or economic pessimism, both potentially favorable for gold. The 2-year yield may have peaked near 4 and 1/2%, strengthening the case that metals have bottomed. Historical recovery patterns suggest gold could reach roughly 5200 to 5400 by the end of 2026, retest its 5600 high, and potentially target close to 7,000 within 12 to 18 months. Gold miners rising almost 25% in 10 days, alongside deeply depressed breadth indicators and support near the exponential 350-day moving average, provide additional evidence for that bullish—but uncertain—outlook.